By Rakibul Hasan
Proving numerous surveys home and abroad visible, BJP wins landslide collapsing mostly dominant Congress party in the 16th Lok Sabha election of India. First sight-observation, conspicuously shows how an ultra nationalist, supra rightist BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) crushes away the secular Congress-led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government.
Moderate Muslim country Bangladesh visualizes its potentialities in regional implications of security and status quo. Strategically Bangladesh lies in the center-basin of China and India. Bangladesh holds a legacy of Pakistani province prior to 1971 marinating a relationship as Muslim state. Moreover, Rohingya issues, a stateless community living in Myanmar who are supposed to be so-called Bangladeshi immigrants, again involves Bangladesh with Myanmar through Rohingya disputes. Bangladesh, a country of 160 million people is no more a small state (except its territorial area), comparatively it has 40 million more people than Russia where Australia constitutes about 20 million people only.
Bangladesh is supposed to be the equilibrium of the regional power exercise. Island country Sri Lanka and Maldives, landlocked states Nepal, Bhutan and some regions, China’s Tibet, India’s Jammu-Kashmir and Seven sisters prove their setbacks rising as strategic land that (calculating the vacuum) is the leverage for Bangladesh to be a ‘Shrimp Country’ in South Asian cockpit.
Pending bilateral issues between Bangladesh and India like water sharing, land demarcation, anti-India public sentiment regarding indiscriminate border killing, mammoth trade gap bring some capricious equation of Indo-Bangla relation. Ruling Awami League (AL)’s time-tested friend Congress-led UPA government failed to reach some agreements on decade-long pending issues at the face of dogged persistence of Mamata banarjee, West Bengal State Minister who appears so strongly in this election acquiring 34 seats that are almost doubled winning 19 seats in 2009. It is expected very normal that Bangladesh is going to face two-directional opposition regarding the question of bilateral resolution. Firstly, Mamata will continue its resistance on Bangladesh’s prime concern, water issues and on the other hand, BJP clarifies in its manifestos that the party is not interested in amending the constitution to resolve lingering bilateral disputes with Bangladesh. Anxieties for Bangladeshis are that Modi and his party BJP frequently introduced the issue of so-called ‘Illegal Bangladeshi Immigrants’ what they counted as much as 2 cores so far, basically in West Bengal, Assam and other bordering states. Considering Immigrants, there comes a question, Is India more secure than Middle East where millions of Bangladeshis pursue their jobs? Unlike many western countries, India fails to produce a single immigrant professional, politicians or successful businesspersons. BJP should think how much Indian-origin professional and politicians are dominating in United States!
Technically BJP can’t show any census or border-entry documents to count or detect those ‘illegal immigrant’ what he calls them ‘Home-grown terror’. BJP thinks of a policy named ‘3-D extending Detect, Detain and Deport’. Moreover, BJP politicians Subramanium Swami recently suggest instead of deportation of Bangladeshis, Bangladesh needs to disintegrate one-third of its land to India for accommodating those illegal immigrants. Modi creates a dualism when he does not comment on illegal Hindu Migrants same as Muslims from Bangladesh. Because what he thinks India would be a ‘Promise Land’ for Hindus around the world. His communal comments can incite a Hindu exodus from Bangladesh towards India and inspires riotous sentiment in Bangladesh; most importantly, it also harms the communal harmony in diverse India marking threats to its territorial integration.
Bangladesh Prime Minister concerns Modi’s remarks but the ruling government hasn’t issued any official statement protesting his communal comments in a senesce it emerges extra pressure from the neighboring big brother when Awami League backing Congress loses the throne. On 7th April, while campaigning In Assam and West Bengal, Modi thinks India should accommodate Bangladeshi Hindus as they love India and they possess ‘Indianess’. He considers Bangladeshi Muslims as ‘infiltrators’ who are ‘home-grown terror or rhino’ stealing India’s jobs while marking Bangladeshi Hindus as ‘Son of India’ returning to their ‘Natural Homeland’, Again he returned to his ‘dog whistle politics’ in Bankura on May 4 he said, “those who were India’s sons, who love India, who celebrate Durgashtami, and speak Bengali, they should be treated in exactly the same way as the sons of India”.
On April 28, at Serampore, Bengal, he urged the local parties to immediately quit the policy vote-banks and after may 16, “these Bangladeshis better be prepared with their bags packed,” Modi also condemned the Mamata Banarjee saying “You are spreading the red carpet for vote bank politics. If people come from Bihar, they are outsiders to you. It people come from Odisha, they are outsiders to you. But if some Bangladeshi comes, your face seems to shine”.
So Friday Times advising Editor Raja Rumi explains Modi’s comments as mare justification of the ‘Two-Nation Theory’.
Thus Hindutva or ‘Moditva’ may redefine regional dimensions of bilateral relations. Despite the ashes of frustration, hopes are in a sense that Modi and his party BJP commented these insincere words largely in West Bengal, Assam and Tripura where Congress largely dominates. In a response, Mamata Banarjee shouted reacting Modi that If Modi and BJP want to create any communal disharmony among the Bengalis, she and her party Trinamool Congress is ready to rock in Delhi. She rather cautions Modi advising learn the nerves of Bengalis. Indian Veteran Journalist Kuldip Nayer ignores Modi’ campaign speeches saying what Modi wants is to polarize the Hindu Vote Bank and considering his post election brief when Modi said his party vows to work with everybody for better India. Moreover, Larger youth community and mercantile quarters endorsed Narendra Modi during 16th Lok Sabha Election and think of the business communities who have no politics, no ideologies what they only consider is profit and they largely choose Modi Government giving their mandate in a return they demand flourishing business. Indian Youth community, almost doubled than US total population, will certainly raise the question of their employment opportunities as simply Modi demonstrates in his manifesto the ‘Gujrat Development Model’. Indian voters thus choose Controversial Modi differing secular Congress, backed with historic Gandhi-Nehru legacies of Familism in politics because Modi became able to dream development for Indian middle class.
These development issues and youth voters voted Modi to rescue austere Indian Economy that records inflation and unemployment during Congress led last 10-years of boundless corruption and mismanagement. Modi however, has to prove his manifesto because what even Indian people distrust the role of RSS (Rashtiya Shawangshebak Shangha) and Shiv Sena, backed NDA alliance breaking down the Babri Masque wounding thousnds of Muslim hearts in India and beyond in 1992. His subsequent alleged linkage in 2002’s Gujrat riot that caused deaths of 2000 people, mostly Muslims and recently broke out Nujaffarnagar riot in 2013. Even he declares the reconstruction of Ram Temple over the relics of Babri Mosque. So people want to believe when they can see that proper implementation of his manifesto of development grows otherwise popular frustration will develop, most strongly among the swing-minded youth who demolished country’s historical leaders from Congress Party for their failure to create new job fields.
It’s also a question how does Modi implement ‘Gujrat Model’ to different states where demographic; resource and other features do not suit Gujrat state?
Regarding Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kashmir issues, Modi predictably are supposed to formulate rigid strategies. Remembering that Modi achieved one-party ability to form government and so India is going to see a strong individual government opposing previous ‘periphery-controlling-centre’ type government.
India’s bureaucrat politics will not able to control strong Modi government this time. Earlier Modi spoke at a campaign that if his party assume in throne, they would obliterate Special Dignity Act given to ‘Jammu and Kashmir’. As a result, Kashmir may grow tensions and probability of persistent disobeys towards centre government. This issue may involve Pakistan to concern along with regional and International powers. Congress leaders are not so willing to visit Israel concerning sentiment of Indian Muslim vote Bank. But, Modi goes opposite side visiting Israel several times that might discomfort larger Muslim community in the Middle-east where number of Indian immigrant works.
Friday Times advising Editor Raja Rumi clarifies concerning Pakistani people, Modi’s assumption in Delhi will bring no good ominous in terms of bilateral relationship between Indian and Pakistan and pending issues will embrace no-solution solution. Moreover, US-led western soldiers are about to leave Afghanistan in 2015, so India may try to create its ‘deep-state’ presence in Afghanistan tackling Pakistan. In addition, Modi addresses that India will justify the ‘No-First-Attack’ policy regarding nuclear issues of the country. These issues lead India towards hard-power potentialities. On May 20, Modi advised the concerned bodies to introduce directorate to address the issue of ‘illegal intruders’ in Assam, West Bengal and Tripura and in Rajstan, Panja and Kashmir. BJP’s avuncular treatments so far threat the stability of the region and incite the anti-India public sentiments and may involve ‘One versus Many’ antagonism in the regional countries.
However, India is an exemplary democracy where opposition parties smoothly assume in power. But the political government in India (maximum regime) is found to influence over regional election in different countries like Nepal, Bhutan and this year Bangladesh openly. Notably Congress influenced the controversial January 5 polls in Bangladesh where 153 out of 300 seats remain uncontested. Islamist Jamaat Islami and recently Hefazat-e-Islami have brought about an Islamic trends associated with some other fundamentalist forces. As Congress left who will back Awami League to fight against growing ‘terrorism’ and fundamentalism in Bangladesh because another fundamentalist BJP is going to form the strongest government in India’s history where BJP gestures BNP government, backed with Jamaat-e-Islami. Controversial Modi’s any failure to protect the mosaic of India’s communal harmony will spread tensions in regional countries as well welcome fundamentalist parties to come in South Asian countries. So is Modi going to ride a blind horse on South Asian cockpit?
[Rakibul Hasan is a Sub-Editor at The Bangladesh Today and Research Assistant at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, reachable at email@example.com]