Home / Contributor / Abdul Hafiz Lakhani / ANALYSIS: Muslim votes can play crucial role In 2019 Indian parliamentary election

ANALYSIS: Muslim votes can play crucial role In 2019 Indian parliamentary election

218 Lok Sabha seats where Muslims have a great influence

By Abdul Hafiz Lakhani

Ahmedabad/New Delhi: The 2019 Lok Sabha dates are out. Voting will be conducted in seven phases for the Lok Sabha election 2019. The first phase of voting will take place on April 11 while the last phase will be held on May 19. The results of the election will be announced on May 23. The 2019 Lok Sabha election will decide the destiny of India. This is the most important election in post-independence era as saffron party BJP is looking for second term at the Center under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take RSS agenda ahead to bring so-called ‘Ram Rajya’ in country. Secularism and constitution of this country is questioned by this dispensation many times in past indirectly. On the other hand opposition parties are still directionless and clueless to some extent to fight this saffron brigade. Uttar Pradesh, politically the most sensitive state, has not able to see Congress into alliance with SP and BSP.

With elections dates announced, the Muslim vote is of vital importance to the outcome. The country’s single largest religious minority makes up 14 percent of India’s population of more than 1.2 billion people. About 17 crores 22 lakh population of India constitutes the Muslim community. And, in some constituencies the Muslim vote can play a key role in deciding the winner, analysts say.

Here’s how Muslims has an impact through vote percent on each seat

• There are 145 seats in India where Muslims accounts for 20% of the overall vote share on each seat
• There are 38 seats in India where Muslims has a vote share of 30%
• There are almost 35 seats in India in which out of every 3 votes is a Muslim vote
• Overall there all 218 seats in India where Muslims have a great influence

So its clear from the above data that Muslims can have a great influence on most of the seats and can play a vital role in Indian politics. If the Muslim votes consolidate in favor of the particular candidate then the chances of him/her getting elected are greater.

Indian Muslims & Elections1But after the 2014 general election, there are only 24 Muslim MP’s which constitutes only 5% of overall Members of Parliament. In 2014, 38% of Muslims voted for Congress, 8.5% for BJP, Left for 6.4% and Samajwadi Party managed to get 11.2%

Year of polls

  Number of MPs %
1 1952 11 2
2 1957 19 4
3 1962 20 4
4 1967 25 5
5 1971 28 6
6 1977 34 7
7 1980 49 10
8 1984 42 8
9 1989 27 6
10 1991 25 5
11 1996 29 6
12 1998 28 6
13 1999 31 6
14 2004 34 7
15 2009 30 6

The BJP largely gained from the sharp division among its anti-vote banks, including the Muslims, between the two regional forces both in the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections in UP, which fills 80 seats in the lower house of Parliament. The state that had sent 73 of its candidates to the Lok Sabha in 2014 is crucial to the party’s ambition of returning to power in general election. The BJP high command is keen on retaining the tally, if not increasing it.

As the battle for Lok Sabha 2019 gathers steam, the falling representation of Muslims in Lok Sabha has been one of the areas of concern as the House is a representation of the country’s social fabric. It remains to be seen how many Muslim leaders are fielded in the polls and how many of them get elected. But if the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is taken into account, one can not expect a huge change in 2019. 

[Abdul Hafiz Lakhani is Editor of Gujarat Siyasat. He is a senior Journalist based at Ahmedabad and regularly contributes to IndianMuslimObserver.com – India’s First Online Muslim Newspaper. He can be reached at [email protected]]

About admin

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *